How to read the Bull / Base / Bear scenarios (and why they are not forecasts)

On the analysis page, a stock's price line can be extended by three dotted lines: Bull, Base and Bear. They look like forecasts. They are not. They are orders of magnitude, and nobody has measured that a price ends up on one more often than another.

What the site draws

The three lines start from the latest price and extend over thirty sessions:

• Base follows the stock's score: above 50 the line rises; below, it falls; at 50 it stays flat.
• Bull redoes the same calculation with a score 20 points higher.
• Bear redoes it with a score 20 points lower.

The spread between the lines is given by the ATR, the average size of a session: the more nervous the stock, the wider the fan opens. A fourth line can appear when the learning model is very confident. That is all: a score, a volatility, a rule of three.

Why they are not forecasts

• Nothing has been measured. No backtest says whether prices ended closer to Bull, Base or Bear. A forecast never checked against reality is not a forecast.
• The parameters are chosen. The 20-point gap, the thirty-session horizon and the ATR multiple are choices, not results.
• A straight line does not exist on the market. The real price will pass above and below, sometimes very far from all three lines.
• The end point is not a price target. It is the end of a line drawn by a rule, not a price anyone expects.

How to use it

To visualise a range: the fan shows how much this stock usually moves, relative to its score. For everything else, the past price line and the indicators say more.